RBI Monetary policy : Repo Rates unchanged at 4%; GDP growth projected at 7.2%
What is the news:
- RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday announced that the Central bank has kept the repo rate – the key lending rate –
- The Governor announced the decision while delivering a statement on the first monetary policy of the new financial year.
- The Governor informed that the real GDP growth for 2022-23 has been projected at2%.
Highlights of the RBI’s first monetary policy statement of 2022-23:
- Policy repo rate unchanged at 4%; marginal standing facility rate & bank rate, too, remain unchanged at 4.25%.
- Monetary stance to be accommodative with focus on withdrawal of accommodation to keep inflation within target.
- GDP growth projection for FY’23 slashed to 7.2% from 7.8%; growth projections based on assumption of crude oil (Indian basket) price at USD 100 a barrel during FY’23.
- Inflation forecast hiked to 5.7% for FY’23 from 4.5%.
- Escalating geopolitical tensions to cast a shadow on economic outlook.
- Robust Rabi output to support recovery in rural demand, pick-up in contact-intensive services.
- Investment activity to gain traction with improving business confidence, pick up in bank credit, government capex plans.
- Opening time for RBI regulated financial markets to be restored to pre-pandemic timing of 9:00 am from April 18.
- Gradual withdrawal of Rs 8.5 lakh crore liquidity overhang to be undertaken over several years.
- Rationalised housing loans norms extended till 31 March 2023.
- RBI will come out with a discussion paper on climate risk and sustainable finance.
- Committee to be set up for review of customer service standards in RBI regulated entities.
- Card-less cash withdrawal facility to be extended to all banks and ATM networks using the UPI.
Monetary policy
Overview
- Monetary policy refers to the policy of the central bank with regard to the use of monetary instruments under its control to achieve the goals specified in the Act.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is vested with the responsibility of conducting monetary policy. This responsibility is explicitly mandated under the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.
The goal(s) of monetary policy
- The primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth. Price stability is a necessary precondition to sustainable growth.
- In May 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934 was amended to provide a statutory basis for the implementation of the flexible inflation targeting framework.
- The amended RBI Act also provides for the inflation target to be set by the Government of India, in consultation with the Reserve Bank, once in every five years. Accordingly, the Central Government notified in the Official Gazette 4 per cent Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation as the target for the period from August 5, 2016 to March 31, 2021 with the upper tolerance limit of 6 per cent and the lower tolerance limit of 2 per cent. On March 31, 2021, the Central Government retained the inflation target and the tolerance band for the next 5-year period – April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2026.
- The Central Government notified the following as factors that constitute failure to achieve the inflation target: (a) the average inflation is more than the upper tolerance level of the inflation target for any three consecutive quarters; or (b) the average inflation is less than the lower tolerance level for any three consecutive quarters.
- Prior to the amendment in the RBI Act in May 2016, the flexible inflation targeting framework was governed by an Agreement on Monetary Policy Framework between the Government and the Reserve Bank of India of February 20, 2015.
The Monetary Policy Framework
- The amended RBI Act explicitly provides the legislative mandate to the Reserve Bank to operate the monetary policy framework of the country.
- The framework aims at setting the policy (repo) rate based on an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation; and modulation of liquidity conditions to anchor money market rates at or around the repo rate. Repo rate changes transmit through the money market to the entire the financial system, which, in turn, influences aggregate demand – a key determinant of inflation and growth.
- Once the repo rate is announced, the operating framework designed by the Reserve Bank envisages liquidity management on a day-to-day basis through appropriate actions, which aim at anchoring the operating target – the weighted average call rate (WACR) – around the repo rate.
- The operating framework is fine-tuned and revised depending on the evolving financial market and monetary conditions, while ensuring consistency with the monetary policy stance. The liquidity management framework was last revised significantly in April 2016.
The Monetary Policy committee Â
- Section 45ZB of the amended RBI Act, 1934 also provides for an empowered six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) to be constituted by the Central Government by notification in the Official Gazette.
- The first such MPC was constituted on September 29, 2016.
- The present MPC members, as notified by the Central Government in the Official Gazette of October 5, 2020, are as under:
- Governor of the Reserve Bank of India—Chairperson, ex officio;
- Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, in charge of Monetary Policy—Member, ex officio;
- One officer of the Reserve Bank of India to be nominated by the Central Board—Member, ex officio;
- Prof. Ashima Goyal, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research —Member;
- Prof. Jayanth R. Varma, Professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad—Member; and
- Dr. Shashanka Bhide, Senior Advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi— Member.(Members referred to at 4 to 6 above, will hold office for a period of four years or until further orders, whichever is earlier.)
- The MPC determines the policy interest rate required to achieve the inflation target. The first meeting of the MPC was held on October 3 and 4, 2016 in the run up to the Fourth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2016-17.
- The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Department (MPD) assists the MPC in formulating the monetary policy. Views of key stakeholders in the economy, and analytical work of the Reserve Bank contribute to the process for arriving at the decision on the policy repo rate.
- The Financial Markets Operations Department (FMOD) operationalises the monetary policy, mainly through day-to-day liquidity management operations. The Financial Markets Committee (FMC) meets daily to review the liquidity conditions so as to ensure that the operating target of the weighted average call money rate (WACR) is aligned with the repo rate.
- Before the constitution of the MPC, a Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) on monetary policy with experts from monetary economics, central banking, financial markets and public finance advised the Reserve Bank on the stance of monetary policy. However, its role was only advisory in nature. With the formation of MPC, the TAC on Monetary Policy ceased to exist.
Instruments of Monetary Policy
There are several direct and indirect instruments that are used for implementing monetary policy.
- Repo Rate:
The (fixed) interest rate at which the Reserve Bank provides overnight liquidity to banks against the collateral of government and other approved securities under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF).
- Reverse Repo Rate:
The (fixed) interest rate at which the Reserve Bank absorbs liquidity, on an overnight basis, from banks against the collateral of eligible government securities under the LAF.
- Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF):
The LAF consists of overnight as well as term repo auctions. Progressively, the Reserve Bank has increased the proportion of liquidity injected under fine-tuning variable rate repo auctions of range of tenors. The aim of term repo is to help develop the inter-bank term money market, which in turn can set market based benchmarks for pricing of loans and deposits, and hence improve transmission of monetary policy. The Reserve Bank also conducts variable interest rate reverse repo auctions, as necessitated under the market conditions.
- Marginal Standing Facility (MSF):
A facility under which scheduled commercial banks can borrow additional amount of overnight money from the Reserve Bank by dipping into their Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) portfolio up to a limit at a penal rate of interest. This provides a safety valve against unanticipated liquidity shocks to the banking system.
- Corridor:
The MSF rate and reverse repo rate determine the corridor for the daily movement in the weighted average call money rate.
- Bank Rate:
It is the rate at which the Reserve Bank is ready to buy or rediscount bills of exchange or other commercial papers. The Bank Rate is published under Section 49 of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. This rate has been aligned to the MSF rate and, therefore, changes automatically as and when the MSF rate changes alongside policy repo rate changes.
- Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR):
The average daily balance that a bank is required to maintain with the Reserve Bank as a share of such per cent of its Net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) that the Reserve Bank may notify from time to time in the Gazette of India.
- Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR):
The share of NDTL that a bank is required to maintain in safe and liquid assets, such as, unencumbered government securities, cash and gold. Changes in SLR often influence the availability of resources in the banking system for lending to the private sector.
- Open Market Operations (OMOs):
These include both, outright purchase and sale of government securities, for injection and absorption of durable liquidity, respectively.
- Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS):
This instrument for monetary management was introduced in 2004. Surplus liquidity of a more enduring nature arising from large capital inflows is absorbed through sale of short-dated government securities and treasury bills. The cash so mobilised is held in a separate government account with the Reserve Bank.
