Russia- Ukraine war
What is the dispute between Russia and Ukraine?
- Ukraine became an independent nation with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
- It was earlier part of the Russian empire and later became the Soviet Republic and did away with its Russian imperial legacy, thereby forming close ties with the West.
- Since its independence, the country is battling corruption and internal divisions.
- The country’s western side wants integration with the West while the eastern region with Russia.
- The conflict started when Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych rejected an association agreement with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Moscow.
- The protestors ousted him in what is known as the Revolution of Dignity. In return, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and backed east Ukraine’s separatist rebellion.
- Soon after this, it attacked Donbas, the country’s industrial heartland. Over 14,000 people lost their lives in the armed conflict between the Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists.
- Ukraine and the West accused Russia of deploying troops and sending weapons to the rebellions, an allegation that Russia denied. However, Russia strongly criticised the US and NATO for aiding Ukraine with weapons and joint military drills.
- President Putin too expressed concerns over plans by some NATO members to establish military training centres in Ukraine as it will facilitate military foothold in the region even without Ukraine joining NATO.
What does Russia want :
- Russia in its security demands said that it doesn’t want Ukraine to be a member state of NATO and further want to cease all NATO drills near its borders and withdrawal of NATO troops from central and eastern Europe.
- It is to be noted that Ukraine’s admission to NATO would require the unanimous approval of the 30 member states. Also, Russia views Ukraine as part of its “sphere of influence”, a territory, rather than an independent state.
- However, the US and NATO have turned down Russia’s demands. The West is backing Ukraine and promised to hit Russia financially if its troops advance to Ukraine.
What does Ukraine want?
- Ukraine is not a member state of NATO but it aspires to be one. It openly said that it will apply for EU membership in 2024.
- Before being considered for NATO membership, it needs to phase out corruption and internal divisions prevalent in the region. The present Ukrainian President was elected on the promises of peace in the Donbas region, anti-corruption and economic renewal.
- In December last year, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg rejected Russian demands to revoke a 2008 commitment to Ukraine that the country would one day become a member. He added that when the time would come, Russia would not be able to veto Ukraine’s accession.
Why is the US concerned?
- Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum Security Assurances for Ukraine as it annexed Crimea and backed the Donbas conflict.
- The multilateral agreement was inked in 1994 between the US, the UK and Russia to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for its commitment to give up its nuclear arsenal.
Russia-Ukraine war : Timeline of the events befor war started
- Russia amassed over 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine.
- Satellite images in November 2021 showed more than 100,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, along with tanks and other military hardware.
- US Prez warned Russia.
- In December 2021, US President Joe Biden warned Russia of sweeping western economic sanctions if it invades Ukraine.
- Russia presented its security demands to the West.
- Russia published draft security pacts and presented them to the West. The nation not only demanded NATO to deny membership to Ukraine and other ex-Soviet countries but de-escalation of troops and weapons in central and eastern Europe.
- On 3 January 2022, US President Joe Biden reassured Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of a decisive response if Russia invades. The leaders further discussed the upcoming diplomatic meetings over the call to address the crisis.
- US and Russian officials met in Geneva.
- The US and Russian officials met in Geneva on 10 January 2022 to solve the issue but it remain unresolved as the former denied accepting the security pacts put forth by Russia.
- US Prez warned of a likely Russian invasion.
- On 19 January 2022, US President Joe Biden warned of a likely Russian invasion and further cautioned Russian President Vladimir Putin of the grave consequences.
- NATO puts its forces on standby.
- Days after diplomatic talks in Geneva, NATO placed its troops on standby and reinforced military presence in eastern Europe with more ships and fights jets on 24 January 2022. At the same time, the US positioned around 8,500 troops on alert.
- The US presented a written response to Russia’s demands.
- On 26 January 2022, the United States presented Russia with a response to its demand wherein it repeated a commitment to NATO’s “open-door” policy while offering a “principled and pragmatic evaluation” of Moscow’s concerns.
- Russia’s security demands are unfulfilled.
- Two days later, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that their security demands have remained unaddressed but they are ready for diplomatic talks.
- Furthermore, Ukraine’s President Zelenkskyy warned the West to avoid creating a panic that will negatively affect his country’s economy.
- A special session of the UN Security Council.
- On the last day of January, the US and Russia held diplomatic talks over the Ukraine conflict at a special closed session of the UN Security Council.
- While the US Ambassador to the UN put forth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would pose a threat to global security, the Russian Ambassador to the UN denied a planned invasion. Putin also backed the Russian Ambassador’s statement to the UN and accused the US of ignoring Russia’s security demands.
- French President met Russian President.
- French President Emmanuel Macron met Russian President Vladimir Putin for marathon talks on 8 February 2022. Putin told Macron that Russia would not further escalate the Ukraine crisis.
- UK Foreign Secretary and Russian Foreign Minister held talks.
- UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Russian FM Sergey Lavrov held talks. The facts presented by the Russian team bounced off their British counterparts. Moreover, the United Kingdom challenged Russia’s assertion that their troops and weaponry will not threaten anyone.
- US and Russian presidents held talks via video conference.
- US President Joe Biden held talks via video conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 12 February 2022. Biden said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would cause widespread human suffering and that the West was committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but equally prepared for other scenarios.
- G7 nations issued a joint statement.
- The G7 nations issued a joint statement that Russia will face massive economic and financial consequences if it attacks Ukraine.
- De-escalation of troops from the border.
- On 15 February 2022, Russia said that it is pulling some troops back from the Ukraine border, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, however, said that they don’t believe what they hear. If a real withdrawal follows these statements, they will believe at the beginning of a real de-escalation.
- Russia recognized two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities.
- On February 21, Putin inked an agreement with separatist leaders, thereby declaring two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities. This has paved the way for Russia to openly send troops and weapons to the region.
Is Ukraine a threat against Russia?
- Putin refers to the ‘further expansion of the infrastructure of the North Atlantic Alliance, the military development of the territories of Ukraine’ as creating an ‘anti-Russia’ comprising a ‘real threat not just to our interests, but to the very existence of our state, its sovereignty’.
- Article 51 allows for self-defence ‘if an armed attack occurs’.
- This has been interpreted by many states to include defence against the threat of an imminent attack – for example, there is no requirement to wait until a nuclear strike has begun. But under no interpretation of ‘imminence’ can the situation in Ukraine constitute a threat to Russia. There have been no threats of force against Russia from Ukraine nor from NATO member states. There is nothing to support a legal justification for Russia’s military attack against Ukraine.
- The mythof Ukraine never having had ‘real statehood’ also does not give any legal justification for Russian aggression. The UN is based on the ‘principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members’ (Art. 2(1) of the UN Charter). Ukraine retained its membership in the UN at the dissolution of the USSR, having been one of the founding members of the UN as the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
What are the legal consequences of Russia’s actions?
- Within the UN, it is the Security Council which has the mandate to uphold international peace and security, and act when there is a threat to the peace.
- But there will be no help from there with Russia’s status as a permanent member holding a veto.
- The UN General Assembly may act instead. Since 2014 it has adopted a series of resolutions (the latest on 9 December 2021) requiring Russia to withdraw immediately and unconditionally from Crimea. But the General Assembly does not have the powers of the Security Council, and cannot mandate peacekeepers or the use of force.
- In due course there may be the need for a UN Human Rights Commission of Inquiry to be launched if there are breaches of human rights law and international humanitarian law, and human rights cases may be brought against Russia at the European Court of Human Rights. But international institutions do not have the necessary powers to stop what is going on right now.
- International law gives the right to Ukraine, being attacked, to call for support from other states. And as well as imposing sanctions, states may wish to consider cyber countermeasures. Some of the recent cyber activity against Ukraine has been attributed by the US, UK, and Australiato the Russian Main Intelligence Unit (GRU).
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